The Tour de France So Far

Alas, it looks like this 2010 edition of the Tour de France is close to decided in terms of the overall winner. Andy Schleck holds a 41-second time advantage over Alberto Contador going into Stage 10, a 111-mile ride from Chambery to Gap.

Contador is the better time trialer of the two and is likely to overcome 41 seconds. He looks like the favorite heading into Paris and the Champs Elysees.

I had hoped for a big shakeout in general classification in the Pyrenees. That would extend the race's drama into the third week. However, fast pacing in the Alps blew up the field. Only Schleck and Contador are left to contend for the top podium spot at the end.

Helping set this table is the fact that Cadel Evans, once in the maillot jaune by 20 seconds over Schleck, cracked on Stage 9 mountain climbs. Evans was so distraught that he cried on the shoulders of another rider after finishing the stage.

Levi Leipheimer and Bradley Wiggens wilted on climbs, too. Carlos Sastre, Dennis Menchov and Ivan Basso never got on form.

Another factor, the biggest one of all, was Lance Armstrong's bad luck. Armstrong suffered a punctured tire on cobblestones and several crashes. None of these events proved conducive to winning an eighth Tour. The timing of these events were particularly harmful.

Armstrong says he will never ride the Tour de France again after this one. He will not win in Paris ever again. That is too bad. It would have been fun to see. Fortunately, there are seven other Tour rides he and his fans can savor.